There are a million reasons why the worst kept secret in the world, Apple’s upcoming iPhone, will succeed. Unfortunately for the Cupertino company there are even more reasons why it will not.
When Apple first introduced its iPod range of mp3 players it solved a big problem for consumers; space. The music players had up to that point been severely lacking in storage capability and the public knew it.
Enter Steve Jobs with his funky glasses, bean bags in the office and beautiful design. The iPods took the world by storm, and has no doubt been the catalyst to Apple’s other successful products.
Ultimately, however, Apple is not a phone company. The last ‘revolutionary’ product that came out of the hipsters was the Mac mini, which largely flopped.
The mobile phone market is extremely competitive, and newcomers normally don’t do too well. Not only do the manufacturers have to compete on technology and performance, but getting in on lucrative deals with the carriers as well.
Apple also has to take into consideration the frequency that people trade in their cell phones. Unlike a high end mp3 player, mobile phones can be traded in as often as twice or three times a year, according to trends and emerging technology. Apple can not afford to jump on an already frantic race to always be first to market as well as being competitive on price.
Ultimately, end users will be very interested to see Apple’s offering, but the hype will die off eventually. It is therefore my bold prediction that the iPhone will, after initial curiosity, crash and burn.
And yes, you can hold me to that.
With all due respect to your insights into the phone industry. I am sure the good people at Apple are aware of your concerns. They have proven to be equally brilliant at creating a profitable business model, as at creating eye-catching products. Apple works the whole, not the just the parts.
And Apple took its sweet time with the iPhone. Perhaps for some of the reasons you mentioned.
Apple is ready. Apple will do very well.
Posted by: Bernie | December 12, 2006 6:11 PM
I dare not even predict if the iPhone will succeed or fail- Apple has surprised us in many ways over many endeavors. I DONT, however, believe it's going to be a revolution or phenomenal seller right out of the gate: cellular service providers are known for competitively pricing and discounting phones, and locking their customers into multi-year contracts.
People dont, generally, purchase the new hot phone as soon as it's released; they purchase a hot new phone when they are able to.
Posted by: Overstim | December 12, 2006 7:35 PM
I will certainly buy one...
BTW, who said the Mac Mini was a flop?
Posted by: dextertangocci | December 13, 2006 1:29 AM
Yep your prediction is bold indeed.
I suspect you will know within months just how wrong it was too..!
Despite the competitive nature of the phone makers, they are ALL of the hopeless at making integrated software.
Everything Apple makes is powerful and complex but easy to use. No-one else comes close.
Posted by: Jon T | December 13, 2006 3:11 AM
I agree... Apple will be a blip on the phone market. It will be interesting if it does succeed if that means cannabalization of the ipod market.
Posted by: Steve W | December 13, 2006 5:26 AM
You only need to look at a few numbers to know that the iphone will be a big success. There have been 80 million ipods sold to date. There are currently 1.2 billion cell phones in use. Consequently the iphone can win a very small percentage of the market and still make Apple very rich. Just image if the iphone took 70% of the market as the ipod has, just do the math, WOW!
Posted by: Dan G | December 14, 2006 9:15 AM
Now that the iPhone has been launched, what do you say now Jan, eating your words yet?
Posted by: Anonymous | January 11, 2007 6:46 AM
Jan, having owned a vast number of high end mobile phones over the years with every new model there seems to be an array of features added that are designed to make life easier. I have found that the biggest problem with a mobile phone is actually navigating around their menus takes time and not to mention the number of buttons that one has to press. All the current applications are a token effort ,maybe an exception to Symbian oS based phones. I myslef cannot wait till the Iphone ships here in NZ, I wll be queing up for one. I have just been awoken to how good Apple products are. I just brought a imac this xmas and my only annoyance is, why hadnt I done it sooner! If its an Apple it works, now thats a no brainer!
Posted by: Brad SMith | January 12, 2007 2:01 AM
I never disputed the obvious fact that the iPhone would launch, and therefore i have no words to eat.
I stand by my opinion that there will be initial curiosity and the Apple name will certainly help that. Again, I think consumer individualism will overpower the initial frenzy.
If Apple get its way, we will all walk around with the same mobile phone. That does not sound all that great to me.
Posted by: Jan | January 19, 2007 2:54 AM
It is pretty obvious that Apple is going to ride the crest of the convergence wave that has been predicted for years. Probably one of the most important and overlooked aspect of convergence is IPTV, where you will be able to access any tv program at any time you wish. This is becoming big in other countries and clearly Apple is positioning itself with the iPhone and Apple TV to be ready for this revolution. Just think of how many young people access video via the net. The iPhone will be HUGE ... and yes you can hold me to that.
Posted by: pxlmvr | January 24, 2007 2:15 PM
Iphone will fail because ATT's Network is NOT 3GCDMA.
THe phone is a good idea, innovative, but a phone without the proper NETWORK backing it up FALL SHORT on what it can do.
Apple will eventually have to go with Sprint or Verizon to save this product. ATT's network not good enough & the Blackberry 3GCDMA/GSM for Worldwide use is being introduced today June 27,2007. Blackberry holds this market hands down for High END phones/PDA's in order to take their market you must BEAT them at there own niche. Without using 3G you can't beat them. End of story.
Posted by: Wood | June 28, 2007 4:17 AM
IPTV right now is getting cancelled by 50% of the European Households where it is offerred:
http://www.billingworld.com/secondary.cfm?page=detail&archiveId=7895
Too many commercials on IPTV for most users. No one wants to watch 30 seconds of commercials for every 2 minute Video clip.
IPTV even over Iphone will be something that the majority of people will do without. AOL shot itself in the foot with pop-ups too..
Posted by: Wood | June 28, 2007 4:22 AM
well looks like yu have been proven very very wrong. sales are just going up and apples shares are following a similar pattern.
mwah.
x
Posted by: Craig | September 26, 2007 2:58 PM
Talk about getting egg on your face! I was totally amazed when I saw this view posted December 2006. Well, it's now November 2007 and the Apple iPhone has just passed the one millionth unit sold!
Why would anyone have such little faith in an Apple product. I can't wait to get one and if it's anywhere near as good as the Apple iTouch that I've just bought I'll be ever so happy.
Posted by: Lou De Vere | November 22, 2007 11:52 AM
hmmmm seems like the iPhone's the winner here. Great phone beautiful navigation. great screen.
Posted by: ben | December 20, 2007 11:22 AM
Can you frame this story? Put it down as the worlds most dumbass prediction, 2 years on and everyone is screaming for this device, They have sold over a 100,000 phones to people on other networks (unlocked) People are desperate to get hold of it.
Dude put your crystal ball away cus I think its made of some cheap alternative..
Posted by: adam ellis | January 22, 2008 9:29 PM
LOL, So i guess that is why they are just about to roll out the iphone 3G all over the world?? All i can say is you couldn't have been more wrong.
Posted by: Paul | June 11, 2008 3:32 PM